Stupid Global Response to Covid-19 Pandemic

Global response to the Covid-19 pandemic can be summarized in panic, quarantine, social distancing, lock down and shutdown. This is objectively stupid. I tell you why, and I’ll explain what would be or would have been a wiser and less costly reaction.

I do not advocate the “let 1% of people die and get it over with”. Even one life matters and if there is anything we can do to save even one person, we should damn well do it. HOWEVER, people and nations are not thinking straight. And those who can and are in power, usually belong to the wealthy echelone of society who can quarantine themselves a month or two in their vacation home. So they wouldn’t even want to take the 1% or less chance (depending on your age). The current measures lead to more death and agony, especially for the poor and unprivileged.

As an extreme example, let’s consider a shit hole country like the US, with no social safety net including universal health care, paid leave or guaranteed unemployment insurance. When you go full lockdown, the majority of poor people either lose their jobs (and possibly insurance), and/or have extra costs to deal with (expensive groceries, medications, etc.). This misery not only leads to more deaths, but also to more criminality, diseases, violence, etc. The costs on the society is enormous.

Now let’s take a look at the fatality statistics (reference):

AGE	DEATH RATE confirmed cases	DEATH RATE all cases
80+ years old	21.9%	14.8%
70-79 years old		8.0%
60-69 years old		3.6%
50-59 years old		1.3%
40-49 years old		0.4%
30-39 years old		0.2%
20-29 years old		0.2%
10-19 years old		0.2%
0-9 years old		no fatalities

As it tellingly demonstrates, the chances of dying for people under 50 is below 0.5%. On average 0.25%, which is 1 in 250. Now let’s compare this with other causes of death (reference):

Opioids: One in 96

Falls: One in 114

Gun shots (in the US): One in 150 (40000 per year, 0.01%)

Pedestrian deaths: One in 556

Even cancer has only four times bigger death tolls than Corona per year, meaning if the pandemic lasts for four years and EVERYBODY gets it, we will have the same fatalities from cancer compared to Corona (10 million per year).

So we have one assumption and one fact:

Assumption: lock downs lead to more death and misery

Fact: Chances of getting the disease is not high compare to other causes of death

Unfortunately, as far as I know there is no study to compare the fatalities of both scenarios (with and without lock down). Anyway, in a few years we will have the numbers.

So now what should we do as an alternative? I believe every country needs to proceed with the following plan:

1- Start building Corona-customized hospitals and training staff specifically to treat Corona patients. I’m sure checking the ventilators and bringing patients their medications and checking up on the is not rocket science and can be learned in a short time.

2- Start building ventilators to help severe cases and reduce death.

3- Have a full quarantine in place for people older than 50.

4- Have strong social programs to help those older people in quarantine.

That’s it! You don’t need to be a genius to see that the cost of this action plans is waaaaay less than the current cost of undiscriminating lock down that leads to economic and social catastrophe.

Anyway, we are leaving in a world where 1% is doing whatever it wants for its own benefit and the rest have to suck it up. For now, they have panicked and are sacrificing everyone else for their own safety. Nothing to be done so far but be disappointed on the level of cruelty from the 1% and level of stupidity and conform from the rest.